CR North Senatorial District: APC’s Self- Inflicted Opposition Quagmire

By Emma Akpong

As Nigeria marks 26 years of uninterrupted democratic governance, Cross River Northern Senatorial District presents a complex and unpredictable political conundrum heading into the next round of general elections in 2027

With the weak and poor private sector situation of the average Cross Riverian, the tendency is the heavy reliance on political patronage for the socio economic well-being of the political players in the State

Invariably, therefore, every politician gravitates towards the ruling Political Party in the State

In 1999 ,when the present 26 years of uninterrupted democracy birthed, the State was a 50,50,power split between the All People’s Party and the People’s Democratic Party

Out of the 25 members of the State House of Assembly, membership was split between the two parties 13,12.

In fact somebody had to break ranks with his Party and joined the opposition to enable APP produce the Speaker of the House, in the person of Dr Gabriel Ada

APP had control of more Local Government Areas and more members of the House of Reps in 1999

Crucially however, PDP produced the  Governor  (Mr Donald Duke)  and two Senators representing the Northern and Central Senatorial Districts in Kanu Agabi SAN, and Sen Mathew Mbu Jnr, for the Northern and Central Senatorial Districts respectively.

By the next round of general elections in 2003, Cross River State became totally a PDP State. Governor Duke wielded the enormous power of the governor ensuring that every politician was whipped into line using the carrot and stick model.

From then on ,no opposition Party won any seat of any significant note into any elective position in the State except Mr Alex Irek in Obubra 1 State Constituency to the State House of Assembly  at a point, when as it was alleged, the PDP mismanaged their primaries and the no nonsense Resident Electoral Commissioner, Mike Igini, then,  stood his ground, ensuring that the election of Mr Irek was upheld making him the only opposition member in the PDP dominated State House of Assembly.

PDP’s dominance in the Cross River political landscape continued until the defection of Governor Ayade from the Party in 2021 to the APC.

He moved with virtually all human and material structures of the party, automatically converting the iconic State Secretariat of the PDP, along Murtala Mohammed Highway in Calabar to the APC State Secretariat. Till today no one knows if PDP was able to retrieve any of their archival materials from that building

That began APCs own dominance of the politics and governance of the State

In the 2023 transition elections, the APC won convincingly in the gubernatorial election across the State. It won the Senatorial and  two house of representatives seats in the southern senatorial district as well as the one senatorial seat and three house of representatives seats in the central senatorial district

The Party swept the House of Assembly seats in the Southern Senatorial District and lost only one of the State Assembly seats in the Central Senatorial District

It was however in the Northern Senatorial District where  the then sitting governor hails from that the party faced it stiffest opposition

The Party inexplicably lost the senatorial, two house of representatives seats as well as virtually all the State house of assembly seats barring just the Obudu state constituency seat to the opposition

The shock of that electoral humiliation is still haunting the APC in Cross River State Northern Senatorial District as we head towards the 2027 round of elections

It remains hard to come to terms with how a Party boasting of a sitting governor, a member of the house of representatives, all members of the State house of assembly, a powerful and domineering state Party Chairman as well as a horde of political appointees including voting units monthly paid ones could lose the senatorial district so embarrassingly.

Attributing that failure to Senator Jarigbe’s ‘superlative performance’ or the so-called Ayade’s ‘poor performance” as governor is simply glossing over the actual issues

Realistically, in our peculiar political practice, it is unimaginable for a ruling party to have lost Cross River North Senatorial District elections the way APC, the ruling party at both state and national levels did in 2023

Something fundamentally went wrong. But has the Party done a proper post mortem? Is it ready to confront the actual causes of that electoral embarrassment?

If the party does the proper thing, it has no business continuing to be the opposition in that senatorial district after the 2027 elections.

The Party has to historically review territorial elective representations over the last 26years across the senatorial district

The two house of representatives seats as shared by the 5 local government areas and the one senatorial seat as rotates around the five local Government Areas of the district.

From 1999 till date, Bekwarra Local Government Area has not served out a four year term in the Senate.  Even though Sen. Kanu Agabi won the seat in 1999, he had to vacate it shortly after swearing in as President Obasanjo appointed him Attorney General and Minister of Justice in his Cabinet. Senator Musa Adede from Obanliku replaced him after winning a by-election. Thereafter, Sen Greg Ngaji from Yala Local Government Area took it from 2003 to 2011completing an 8year stretch. Senator Ayade did a four year term from 2011 to 2015. It went back to Yala with Dr Rose Oko who unfortunately died mid tenure leading to Jarigbe Agom’s emergence.

The Ogoja/Yala Federal constituency has therefore held the senatorial seat for a combined sixteen years while the Obudu, Bekwarra and Obanliku federal constituency has only had it for 8years as we head into 26years of uninterrupted democratic governance in this Republic

At the OBO federal constituency level Bekwarra has had a combined run of twelve years, (Dr Mike Ogar,4years and RT Hon Legor Idagbo 8 years) Obudu, 8  with Paul Adah and Obanliku, about to complete 8,  with Frank Adah 4years and incumbent Peter Akpanke in his first 4 year run.

For the Yala/Ogoja federal constituency, Yala  and Ogoja has had virtually the same number  of years at the  green chambers with Peter Igbodor, Gabe  Idi and Jarigbe Agom doing a combined 14years while Rose Oko, Jude Ngaji and current holder, Offiono, would be completing a combined 12years out of the 26 years heading into 2027.

The APC has to take into account this historical representative spread and strategically, fairly conscientiously align their candidates for the 2027 general elections. The Senatorial seat realistically has to be for OBO federal constituency. Realistically and fairly too, it has to be micro zoned to Bekwarra Local Government Area for equity and fairness

For the two federal constituency seats, with both reps only in their first terms, they are most likely going to be given the choice of first refusal. OBO federal constituency is presenting it’s own complexity as Hon Akpanke is heading to the ruling APC. It is a deft and pragmatic political manoeuvre as it is clear the APC will correct its mistakes of 2023 and go all out to reclaim the seat in 2027, no matter whatever scorecard Akpankes four year representation may read.

With the rumblings surfacing in the APC with the recent outburst of former Chief of Staff to the former Governor, the APC must swiftly move to put it acts together

In a political system where there’s accountability and loyalty, a ruling party in any state shouldn’t be losing any election so carelessly as the APC did in the 2023 elections in the district.

Presently Cross River North Senatorial District has a very likeable Deputy Governor, HE Peter Odey, the State Party Chairman, Alphonsus Ogar Eba, uncountable political appointees as well as virtually all members of the State house of assembly from that senatorial district in its ranks. If all these officiandos are close to their individual units, politically and make political capital out of their positions, the APC has no business losing any elective position in that district

It should be unacceptable to the Governor and the entire State party structure to be playing opposition in any part of the State no matter the performance of any incumbent from an opposition platform. Political considerations such as the need for Bekwarra to produce a Senator after 26years of uninterrupted democratic governance should bud well with even the voting populace who crave equity  and fair distribution in representation.  And the candidate must equally be a tested and trusted personality with a track record acquired during this 26year democratic dispensation

After 26 years we should all be familiar with the antecedents of our political players

The APCs opposition status in Cross River North Senatorial District is self inflicted and it’s political leadership should be ashamed of itself and would be regarded as an embarrassment to the State party and governance structure if it doesn’t correct it’s mistakes of 2023 and reclaim the senatorial district in 2027.

Emma Akpong, a retired permanent secretary writes from Calabar